The Three Plate Theory is a cognitive model about Ponzi schemes proposed by thecryptoskanda. This article explores the reasons for the three bull markets based on this theory: MEME coins are mutual aid plates, DeFi is dividend plates, and ICO is split plates.
What is the Three Plate Theory#
Thecryptoskanda believes that one of the greatest values of Crypto is the first realization of Ponzi democratization and tradability.
Everyone can issue and trade plates. Putting aside external factors, each round of the Crypto bull market is driven by fundamental Ponzi innovation. By studying Ponzi innovation, you can find major trend-level alpha in the market based on the first priority required by Ponzi innovation.
Although Ponzi schemes may seem dazzling, they ultimately boil down to three models: dividend plates, mutual aid plates, and split plates. All Ponzi schemes are combinations of these three models. Based on this logical analysis method, he calls it the "Three Plate Model". The three plates can appear separately or in combination, each with its own advantages and disadvantages, corresponding to the logic of starting, operating, and collapsing.
- Dividend Plates: Invest a lump sum of money and receive dividends linearly over time.
- Mutual Aid Plates: A gives money to B, B gives money to C, and C gives money to A, forming a mismatch of funds and settling profits on a per-transaction basis.
- Split Plates: Continuously split an asset target into new targets. Attract incremental funds through low-priced targets. Profits are realized through the appreciation of targets.
In terms of logical design, the characteristics of the three plates are as follows:
MEME is a Mutual Aid Plate#
The core of traditional mutual aid plates lies in the mismatch of funds. This model usually involves multiple participants transferring money to each other in order, forming a fund cycle. Generally, for a user, the money received from the next person is higher than the money given to the previous person, thus earning more money than their original investment. The project party generally earns returns through transaction fees for each transfer.
This Ponzi model is the most decentralized among the three models because once the rules are established, there is no need for "management parties" to intervene because transaction fees are essentially taxes.
Traditional mutual aid plates are a mismatch of funds on a spatial scale, so they do not need to form a fund pool, and most of them cannot freely enter and exit funds, but they must promise high returns. So why is MEME coin considered a mutual aid plate?
We generally believe that MEME coins have two most important attributes:
- Fair Launch: Everyone can participate (everyone can help each other)
- Full Circulation: No need for project party reservations
The so-called "cultural attributes" and "large total supply" are not necessary.
In fact, MEME coins are a mismatch of funds on a time scale. Let's assume that in a bull market context, a certain MEME coin is consistently rising in value. In reality, today's buyers are transferring money to yesterday's buyers, and yesterday's buyers are transferring money to buyers who bought at the lowest price the day before yesterday. And because of the uniqueness of time itself, it forms a "passive lock-up" (people cannot always step into the same river). So we have the following comparison chart:
DeFi is a Dividend Plate#
DeFi was the core narrative of the previous bull market (2020). Technically, it is about writing financial rules into smart contracts (a way of combining blockchain technology with a specific field). From the perspective of token economics, it is the distribution of protocol tokens through liquidity mining: deposit money into the protocol to obtain tokens.
For example, the two most important aspects in the financial field are trading and lending, which gave rise to Uniswap and Compound. In Uniswap, users provide token A and token B to form a trading pair LP and deposit it into the liquidity pool to earn profits. In Compound, users need to deposit tokens available for lending into the liquidity pool to earn profits. Most of the profits are protocol tokens, and a small amount is real money (stablecoins).
DeFi is a typical dividend plate because the basic logic of a dividend plate is "invest a lump sum of money and receive dividends linearly over time". Isn't it exactly the same as the above approach? We also have the following comparison chart:
ICO is a Split Plate#
ICO was the core narrative of the previous bull market (2017). The general gameplay was to write an idea in a white paper in any field, then raise funds and issue tokens, leading most people to mistakenly believe that the only application of blockchain is "issuing tokens" (another way of combining blockchain technology with a specific field). So during that period, many strange tokens appeared, such as "issue a token for environmental protection", "issue a token for computers", "issue a token for charity", and so on.
As we know, a split plate continuously splits an asset target into new targets. It attracts incremental funds through new low-priced targets. Profits are realized through the appreciation of targets. Isn't this exactly what ICOs did? If we consider the cryptocurrency race at that time as a fund pool, the appearance of various ICOs continuously split the cryptocurrency asset target into new investment targets (new ICO tokens) through "new stories" to attract incremental funds. So we still have the following comparison chart:
The Cryptocurrency Circle is the Plate Circle#
If we ignore the specific technological evolution and only consider it from the perspective of token economics, it seems that the past decade did represent the evolution of Ponzi models. We can even consider Bitcoin mining as a dividend plate (staking machines generate BTC income).
So, is the evolutionary sequence: dividend plate (BTC mining) - split plate (ICO) - dividend plate (DeFi) - mutual aid plate (MEME)? At the same time, projects have become more and more decentralized.
On the other hand, if we consider MEME as a race, with more and more MEME coins appearing, it is actually a manifestation of a split plate. Therefore, MEME can be considered as a combination of mutual aid plate and split plate.
The mutual aid plate may be the real answer to "not receiving each other's plates" in this bull market (Restaking is a dividend plate, DePin is a dividend plate, Layer2 is a split plate, obviously retail investors in this bull market only want to play mutual aid plates).